Clocks You Can’t Reset

Market recap

There is a moment I have always loved: the new conductor steps to the podium, taps it, and the room waits to learn what kind of leader this will be. Markets got theirs at Jackson Hole, where Kevin Warsh used his first keynote as Fed Chair to say price stability comes first, even if rates must rise.

The data played along. July’s inflation came in at 3.7%, well above target, and the bond market took him at his word: the 10-year yield hit 4.77%, its highest since October 2023, with better-than-even odds now on a September rate increase.

Then oil grabbed the baton. Middle East tensions pushed crude from the low $80s to the mid $90s in two weeks, the Dow gave back 628 points Tuesday, and the S&P stepped off its record. Mortgage rates crept up to 6.71%, a 13-month high.

What does a hawkish conductor mean for the music? Not panic: attention. August’s CPI lands September 11, and the Fed decides the week this issue reaches you.

Three clocks

My grandfather kept three clocks in his kitchen, and none of them agreed. His trick wasn’t fixing them: he knew which clock ran the stove, which ran the school bus, and which he could ignore. This fall has three clocks of its own, and none can be reset.

Clock one: September 15. Third-quarter estimated taxes and extended returns for S-corporations and partnerships are due. Your CPA already knows... which is why we schedule around them, not against them.

Clock two: December 31, 2026. If you deferred a capital gain into an Opportunity Fund, the deferral ends this New Year’s Eve: the remaining gain is recognized, sell or not. That gain cannot roll into a new deferral: the bill is the bill. The ten-year benefit survives: hold ten years and the growth can still earn its basis step-up. A new gain realized late this year falls under the 2027 rules instead: a rolling five-year deferral plus a 10% basis increase at year five. Which dollar gets which rules is a CPA conversation before December.

Clock three: the quiet one. Loss harvesting, charitable timing, contribution checkups... year-end planning runs on a clock with no alarm, and the moves land easiest when the conversation starts in September.

Which clock runs your stove? That’s the September question.

Markets at a glance (as of Sep 8, 2026)

• S&P 500: 7,673.52. Down 0.6% Tuesday as oil jumped; off the late-August record

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,786.07. Down 628 points Tuesday, back-to-back losses

• 10-Year Treasury yield: 4.77%; briefly above 4.8%, highest since October 2023

• 30-Year Treasury yield: 5.24%; near a 19-year high

• PCE inflation (July, y/y): 3.7%. Hotter than expected; core 3.3% (August print late September)

• 30-Year mortgage rate: 6.71%. Up from 6.66%; a 13-month high (Freddie Mac, Sep 3)

• WTI crude oil: $91.48; up sharply on Middle East risk (EIA, as of Sep 1)

• Natural gas (Henry Hub): $2.90; firmer with oil (EIA, as of Sep 1)

Main Street Alternatives’ key real estate metrics

• Home prices: +1.5% y/y; 13th straight month below inflation (Case-Shiller, June)

• Housing inventory: 9.6 months; new-home supply at a 2026 high (Census, July)

• Rent growth: +1.8% y/y; fastest pace in over a year (Zillow ZORI, July)

• Mortgage rate (30-year): 6.71%; up from 6.66% (Freddie Mac, Sep 3)

• CRE cap rate: 6.82%; single-tenant net lease average, +2 bps in Q2 (Boulder Group)

• CRE vacancy (office): 18.3%. Down 30 bps in Q2; measures vary, Moody’s shows 21% (CBRE)

• CRE transaction volume: +23% y/y; $279.3B in H1 2026

• Cap rate vs. 10-Year spread: 205 bps; net lease average minus the 10-Year close (MSA calc)

Q3 is a good time to do: estate planning & risk management

• Documents review

• Beneficiary review

• Charitable giving

• Insurance policy review

5 things that make you smarter this month

• The 1031 exchange is over a century old: it entered the tax code in the Revenue Act of 1921.

• The 30-year Treasury bond was discontinued entirely in 2002 and not brought back until 2006.

• The Fed’s 2% inflation target is younger than the iPhone: it only became official policy in January 2012.

• “Mortgage” is Old French for “death pledge.” The pledge dies when the debt is paid.

• The Jackson Hole symposium, where the new Fed chair just spoke, reportedly chose its location in 1982 to lure Paul Volcker with fly fishing.

Sometimes the best conversations start with a simple question. If something in this issue made you think, “What does this mean for me?” then reach out.

Main Street Alternatives: for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Securities offered through Quincy Wells Capital, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Quincy Wells Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser.